As we enter the homestretch for 2023, it remains a mixed bag for my financial observations and actions.
Despite 40 years, in and around the financial arena, I still find myself putting my pant legs on one leg at a time.
Overall – My investment motto is, “It’s better to be a live chicken, versus a dead duck.” America is in the midst of its worse-ever, economic, social, and political era. Any light seen at the end of the tunnel is just another bearish train that will run over all those not prepared for what’s unfolding.
U.S. Stock Market – While not wanting (or needing) to partake in it, I did pray for a stock market rally for the first half of the year, hoping those who found themselves in 2022 with too much equity exposure both financially and mentally, to greatly lower their holdings into. In late July, I declared the bulk of such a “countertrend” rally over, and we have weaken ever since. With a professional and individual investor community, weaned on extraordinary bullish stock and bond markets, they will all struggle with the “lean” years now unfolding.
U.S. Bonds – Owning T-Bills for 1- 2 year durations, is okay in my book, as they are the lesser of two evils versus general equities. Avoiding corporate paper is still wise in my book, as financing many of the zombie companies the FED resurrected back at the start of Covid, will find themselves this time around without a “Sugar-Daddy”.
Uranium – My first ever significant “exposure” to it a few years ago with the price under $20, proved to be among the best decisions I ever made in my career. It’s now gone “mainstream”, and while ample upside remains, I think we’re getting close to where it would be wise to at least takeout any original investment in it, and shares related to it, and let the rest “glow” for some time to come.
Now, if I could only stop here, it would be another great year. But when it comes to metals and mining shares, especially junior resource stocks, some have said:
The worst ever junior resource market in my 40 years, continues mostly unabated. While we ended the week with a couple of faint signs of ebbing, the losses are widespread.
My metals and mining crystal ball has sucked:
I’ve heard this about it:
And that was just from my wife!
Badly beaten financially, physically, and emotionally, I’m convinced the ultimate low in the shares between now and year-end, can prove to be the single biggest buying opportunity in them, when one looks back a year or two from now.
Gold, Silver, Copper, Zinc, and even now Lithium, remain my perferred capital appreciation vehicles.
Finally, I continue to believe it’s wise to avoid commerical real estate, especially office building related. The economic slowdown will gather steam going forward, at a time when lots of refinancing needs are due in this sector, with many banks in bunkers, hoping to come out renewed – if and when the dust clears.