I remain convinced that America has entered its most difficult economic, social, and political period. While the broader U.S. equity market clearly does not share that view, many other markets and indicators point in the same direction I do. That has made a major short position against stocks tempting, but so far, mostly avoiding that trade has been the better decision. Fortunately, stronger alternatives to broad equity exposure, both in the U.S. and abroad, have made my miss on general U.S. equities much easier to accept.
Even so, I find it increasingly difficult to avoid taking at least some bearish equity position. At a minimum, I am considering bearish call option spreads. With conditions continuing to deteriorate, even Riverboat Pete needs to become more defensive. As a result, I have again reduced my personal and family holdings to just two equity positions, NTCPF and MLMLF, with the rest in cash, T-Bills, and U.S. Treasury money market funds.
My overall outlook for metals and mining shares remains intact. However, because I have chosen to concentrate so heavily in NTCPF and MLMLF while still holding substantial liquidity, this approach works best for me and my family.
I dislike cookie-cutter formulas, but I would rather have no general equity exposure than be fully invested. Still, I see strong appeal in RILAs for those who want or need equity exposure for potential growth over the next five to seven years. I continue to avoid Treasury bonds of any kind, a strategy that has proven successful for nearly five consecutive years.
I need to rely primarily on my X page and Pete Speaks videos to communicate, especially now. Those platforms allow readers and viewers to follow what I am watching closely and what I believe deserves attention economically, socially, and politically. I also believe the election will become a key market factor. In my view, Trump did far more wrong than right, and that will significantly affect the election and, of course, geopolitics. Even the “don’t worry, be happy” crowd, along with the financial media closely aligned with it, will not be able to ignore this no matter how hard they try.
Just because many have tossed this book in the garbage, I won’t!
