As I continue working to place greater focus on my faith and less on finance, my responsibility to our clients remains as strong as ever. I also recognize that many people around the world who are not clients still follow my views, and I accept that responsibility even though it is not required of me. For that reason, I believe my Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ, gives me the grace to be a light in an increasingly dark financial world where God is often left out.
Simply put, I have never been more confident in my financial market views. Still, after twice losing millions in profits over my 42-year career, I am grateful to have let go of the “legend in my own mind” label years ago.
I am writing this blog post so anyone who chooses to stay informed can do so, and to again encourage you to follow my X page so you do not miss anything.
I cannot stress enough the guidelines I shared again yesterday:
- Spend less than you earn—something many Americans, and certainly the government, are failing to do.
- Living within your means is essential; living below them is wiser as government revenue needs grow and everyday costs rise.
- Put capital preservation ahead of growth, seeking only modest gains through structured products designed to limit downside risk.
- In the years ahead, success may depend less on what you gain than on what you avoid losing.
- Many financial advisors and clients have never experienced a true, prolonged bear market, making it difficult to accept that markets can move sharply in both directions.
- Passive investing, a major force behind the equity bull market, works both ways, even if it has mostly moved in one direction so far.
- America’s dominance on the world stage has ended, and Trump has accelerated that decline.
- These ten factors continue to worsen.
U.S. Stock Market – Throughout August, I said investors had until Labor Day to take a strongly bearish stance on broad U.S. equities. At a minimum, I suggested considering bearish call spreads. The only strategy our team uses that I currently support is RILAs, because limiting upside while eliminating or reducing losses aligns with my outlook. I may later favor select emerging markets over U.S. equities, but not yet. The upcoming Elections will be a driving force in market moves.
U.S. Bonds – See my commentary, “5% T-Bond, Now What?”
Metals and Mining – This is the only sector where I see real value. Thankfully, I have avoided the corrective phases so far. I believe we are in a three-stage bull market and have just entered the second phase. This phase should last the longest, though it will likely be more of a gradual move higher than a series of rocketship advances.
The webinar this Wednesday may be the best $80 one could spend. I will be listening with everyone else to hear what Michael Gentile has to say.
