Although election results may affect some of my financial market views, I’m pleased with what appears to be another strong year overall for my forecasts. With developments moving quickly, following my X page remains essential.
Current developments appear to vindicate my view that RILAs were the most prudent approach to a dangerously overvalued U.S. stock market, where AI speculation fueled what I consider the largest bubble ever. I still believe preserving capital is wiser than pursuing capital appreciation.
Avoiding Treasury bonds and lower-quality corporate bonds since late 2021 continues to look prudent. Although I now consider Treasuries the lesser of two evils compared with equities overall, I expect the 10-year Treasury yield to reach 6% before 4%. One-year Treasury bills remain my preferred fixed-income investment.
I’m back “all in” on metals, mining, and exploration stocks, while reserving some capital in case uranium and critical minerals investments fall further. I bought knowing that a break below $4,000 could drive my purchases down 10%–20% by year-end. Below is my recent interview with Michael Gentile, whose views I largely share:
I’ve often discussed my ten biggest concerns, all of which are worsening. An eleventh now concerns me deeply as well.
I’m also glad I’ve shown little interest in private credit, private equity, or crypto.
With losses widespread across the areas I follow, I wouldn’t chase investments for much of the rest of the year; tax-loss selling could be particularly intense. I’ll discuss what I’m willing to buy on my X page.
Upcoming dates:
- I’m scheduled for major surgery on November 20 and hope to be back to normal soon afterward.
- The December 8th online conference will proceed and should be particularly useful in light of current developments.
- I’ll travel to Montreal to watch the Devils play the Canadiens and take part in this event:
I always encourage reviewing past commentaries of mine.
