I believe Almighty God has allowed me to endure what I have so I can be a voice from the wilderness of greed and corruption in the financial world—challenging the overly optimistic, and sometimes absurd, assumptions many on Wall Street make about people’s hard-earned money.
It has never been more important to be a live chicken than a dead duck. In my view, caution is essential, and preserving capital must come before chasing appreciation.
Before deciding what kind of portfolio to hold, I believe several essential principles and actions must be understood:
- God owns everything; we are only stewards.
- Less is more, especially in a debt-burdened world.
- We must live within our means—and, when possible, below them.
- Do not spend beyond what you have.
- Tithing remains the surest investment, bar none.
- Grandich’s Ten Commandments
Once these principles are in place, my view of the financial world is unlikely to win invitations from financial institutions. I believe many advisors are unprepared for what lies ahead. Many were not even born when I entered the business in 1984, and they have never lived through a prolonged bear market. They and their clients have been conditioned to believe the market always rebounds, so every pullback should be bought. History shows that recovering losses can take decades. No, this time is not different.
Yes, we have seen the greatest melt-up ever, and it has gone further than I expected. But repeated signs now suggest key parts of this historic rise are unraveling as we speak.
For now, I believe little to no broad equity exposure anywhere in the world is prudent. RILAs may suit those who need growth and are willing to give up some upside in exchange for limited or no downside losses.
No belief in my 42-year career proved more valuable than exiting worldwide government bonds at the end of 2021 and remaining in one-year U.S. Treasury bills since. A global debt crisis is underway, and it is still early.
Being in and out of the gold trade has been highly rewarding overall, especially in mining shares and junior resource stocks. There have been a few real losers, but overall, the gains have far outperformed even some extraordinary technology-stock gains.
Another opportunity in metals and mining is ahead, but my team does not specialize in that area. For that reason, I recommend two friends who are technically competitors but are excellent at what they do. I am pleased to see clients of our planning group work with them in this space:
- JD Duyck jd@firstsecurities.com
- Tim Grable tgrable6@gmail.com
My days of speaking about metals and mining 24/7/365 are over, though I have discussed them more recently because they are interesting again. Even uranium—a position in which I achieved triple-digit gains twice—is back on my watch list.
I encourage you to revisit recent blog posts to better understand my current thinking:
- Two Teachings Critical For Our Natural Lives
- From Bad To Worst With No Real Hope In Sight
- Retirement Crisis – It Just Keeps Getting Worse
- Debt – The Dirtiest Four Letter Word In My Book
Finally, I believe the difference between winners and losers will come down not to what they make, but to what they avoid losing.
Noah didn’t wait for it to rain before starting to build his Ark.
