As noted in recent blog posts, I am ending my regular public commentary on my personal portfolio, mining shares, and junior resource stocks. I will still share general views on metals and mining, but with greater balance and with attention to the economic, social, and political factors most relevant to our financial planning clients.
This was a difficult decision for two main reasons:
1 – It has been part of my life for roughly 37 of my 42 years in and around the financial world.
2 – My strongest one- and five-year personal investing results came from metals and mining, helped in part by discovering Michael Gentile—whom I call the “Golden Goose” and someone else once called the “Warren Buffett” of junior resource stocks. In my view, those who follow his work closely are likely to fare better than following many others.
Over time, however, I came to understand that my calling is not simply to identify promising junior resource opportunities. It is to bring my openly embraced Catholic Christian faith into a truly God-inspired alternative to traditional financial planning—one intended to reduce risk while improving clients’ lifestyles and savings. At 70, I can no longer do both well. I have been blessed to work with a team of great professionals, including my partner of 26+ years, Dave Suckey. We’re indebted to our financial mentor, Frank Congilose, who I call the Michael Gentile of financial planning. We’re honored to be a part of a group managing over 1.6 billion dollars and seemingly on the way to $2 Billion+. That must, and will, take precedent over metals and mining analogies.
Please allow me, then, to offer one final analogy that I hope proves worthwhile—and, God willing, reflects the success achieved over the past five years.
At the end of 2021, I made what I believe was my most controversial—and hardest to accept—investment observation. When I shared it with clients, only one followed it fully. I believed the BRICS nations were part of a broader global shift away from U.S. economic dominance, with a growing desire to reduce—and eventually eliminate—dependence on the U.S. dollar in their economic, social, and financial systems. To support that shift, I believed they were buying, and would continue to buy, gold for several reasons: as part of a future exchange system and as an alternative to holding dollars and U.S. Treasuries. I expected this to drive gold sharply higher and create stronger capital appreciation opportunities than U.S. stocks and bonds.
For most people, selling all U.S. stocks and bonds to buy gold was too difficult to accept. Even so, those who moved partway in that direction saw gold significantly outperform both U.S. stocks and bonds into early 2026.
As reflected in this blog post, the junior resource stocks I discussed produced triple-digit annual gains in each of the four years I had blog sponsors. While a few critics focused on poor picks, the overall results—even after accounting for them—far outperformed general equities and, of course, bonds.
Then gold—and especially silver—went parabolic in early 2026. Bullish sentiment among investors and so-called professionals became excessive, with forecasts of $10,000 gold, $300 to $500 silver, and junior resource stocks rising hundreds or even thousands of percent. That was when I drew serious frowns—and some memorable “you’re a jerk, Grandich” emails—by saying I would sell both metals near their all-time highs, along with every mining share and junior resource stock except one.
I have recently begun re-entering the market, but I believed a full commitment should wait until one or two things happened:
1 – Gold closed above $4,800
2 – Gold fell below $4,000 and traded between $3,900 and $4,000
It appears the second option has arrived: it may be time to put the bling back on.
Before going further, I want to make several important points:
1 – Wall Street has shown some interest in gold, but still largely treats it like Kryptonite. Some have suggested gold belongs alongside bonds in a traditional 60/40 portfolio, but I do not expect a meaningful shift until the largest stock market bubble of all time finally bursts—and I believe that is a matter of when, not if.
2 – Crypto, Memecoins, and NFTs once competed strongly with gold and silver. But with two of the three now on life support and Bitcoin’s biggest hype days behind it, gold and silver are no longer easy targets for promoters of these 21st-century financial fads.
3 – Once again, many mining-share investors—especially in junior resources—have learned that they may lack the emotional tolerance or true risk capital needed for an industry where failure is common. The parabolic rise earlier this year clearly hurt many latecomers, and some will need to first whine, avoid looking in the mirror, and exit before a real bottom can form.
4 – As with all investing, decisions should be guided by a well-structured written plan, not impulse. Too many junior-resource investors still let emotion drive their buy, sell, or hold decisions. If a company has not strayed from its plan, investors should not react simply because its share price has moved. Most still make decisions from the seats of their pants. Given this hard selloff, a change of underwear for some is overdue.
5 – I often say that those of us who look into a crystal ball for a living are experts only at eating broken glass. After 42 years, all I can offer is an educated guess that I hope proves useful.
Many may remember that after stepping away from metals and mining from 2013 through 2018, I returned to the space and turned bullish on gold around $1,300. As gold began moving higher, an old media friend invited me to discuss it publicly. It was my first interview in several years.
I had no intention of returning to the industry for a living, but over time I became increasingly positive on gold. I then saw how attractive uranium had become, followed by copper. I grew strongly bullish on all three and began investing in related stocks.
I traded uranium stocks twice, earning large gains each time, and became more bullish on copper than ever. My saying became: $5 in 2025, $6 by 2026, and $7 by 2027.
That view was not widely shared outside the small group that always preaches “buy, buy, buy” in that arena. Then Michael Gentile—the Golden Goose—entered my life. Beginning in 2022, I accepted many of the companies he invested in as blog sponsors and invested heavily in many of them myself. I ended that arrangement before 2026 began.
For most of my career, I described owning silver as “like kissing your sister.” To me, it was always second-class to gold. But when silver fell below $30 in 2025, I believed it could finally run alongside gold. I liked it until it, too, entered a parabolic phase that seemed likely to pop. At that point, I suggested exiting both silver and gold while remaining bullish on copper. I also wanted no exposure to metals shares except one, which I will discuss shortly.
Here are some of the reasons I would again be aggressive in gold, silver, copper, mining shares, and junior resource stocks.
1 – Some investors now recognize how many metals are truly in short supply—and how difficult they can be to secure in a world where countries increasingly look out for themselves. In my view, it would be a mistake to treat this as just another failed rally. Rather, the first act appears complete, and the intermission may end sooner than most expect. The second leg higher should be slower and less steep, but it could still set new all-time highs over the next 12 to 18 months.
2 – Major mining companies have learned from past mistakes and are in the strongest financial shape I have seen in my 42-plus-year career. They also face a more limited world for exploration and development, as economic, political, and social concerns grow in many regions. Meanwhile, grades are declining, and mining at many key operations is becoming more difficult. Political support for mining has also shifted dramatically and is now far more aligned with the industry than against it.
3 – BRICS-led de-dollarization continues, although quietly, as those nations appeared to wait out Trump’s bluster and bullying, which have increasingly turned many against him. If Congress shifts at least partly back to Democratic control, Trump could face more political resistance than ever and retreat further from the global geopolitical stage.
4 – One of the most bullish factors for gold may be central bank buying. A recent survey suggests many central banks expect to remain major buyers. The WGC 2026 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey, published Tuesday, showed that 89% of reserve managers expect global central bank gold holdings to increase over the next 12 months, while a record 45% expect their own institutions to add to their reserves.
5 – Silver—what some may dislike hearing me call “the poor man’s gold”—has stronger fundamentals than ever and should no longer be relegated to the back seat. Instead, it may ride alongside gold. One unique way to play it is through a public company called Silver Crown Royalties.
6 – Copper remains my favorite metal, and I never exited it in hopes of buying lower. Simply put, Robert Friedland says much of what investors need to know in this video about why copper is bullish. And Dr. Copper is dead: there is no longer ample supply on the sidelines to push prices sharply lower when economies cool:
7 – Uranium may have the strongest fundamentals of all, in my view. However, because so few public companies produce or own physical uranium—and most others are simply exploring for it—I have not returned for a third swing for the fences. It does, however, remain on my watch list.
8 – The junior resource market, while thankfully better run and more closely overseen by regulators, still includes some people who sell their wares like used car salesmen. It remains extremely thin on top-tier talent, so thanks be to God for Michael Gentile. Please, God, may he be like Moses and lead us to the Promised Land. His weekly email letter here.
9 – A sharp setback in gold and silver would not necessarily mean both metals resume a straight climb afterward. The technical damage is meaningful: gold could fall several hundred dollars more, and silver could briefly drop below $50. With monthly, quarterly, and semiannual periods ending Tuesday, climax selling into that date remains possible—and I would welcome it. Thin holiday-week trading in Canada and the U.S. next week could add further weakness, so it may be best not to look too closely before July 6th.
10 – One argument now circulating is, in my view, nonsense: that higher interest rates and inflation are bad for gold. Excuse me? Two of gold’s strongest rallies occurred while both were rising sharply. In the 1970s and again over the past five years, rates and inflation climbed significantly, yet gold delivered powerful gains. After breaking out near $2,000 and rising to about $5,500, a normal 50% retracement would bring it near $3,750. I believe the opportunity is to accumulate between $3,500 and $4,000.
It is fitting that I close my final detailed metals and mining commentary by discussing the single best company I have ever invested in: Northisle Copper & Gold (NTCPF $1.78, NCX $2.54). Rather than offer another lengthy commentary, I will say this plainly:
- After spending 90 minutes with key management this week, I have never been more confident that this is the single stock I want to own the most. No other company I have reviewed has checked every box the way this one has.
- The company has already reached milestones others only dream of, but after my discussion, I believe those accomplishments were only appetizers before the main course. Within weeks, more drill results and an updated resource could lead to a larger, stronger, and less costly development. Based on my review of already released public data, two key deposits once considered separate may now be one continuous deposit. That would have major bullish implications, and I believe the market should respond positively. Even more striking, another nearby deposit may also be similarly connected. If so, the company may already have a world-class deposit before drilling the new, highly promising virgin areas across its large land position.
- These factors, combined with a PFS expected by year-end, support what I believe could be a major re-rating—possibly as much as three times today’s share price—without counting any new major discoveries from the company’s largest drill program to date, which is about to begin.
- Numerous analysts and major money managers, including household names, are now scheduled to visit the project throughout the summer. Rest assured, the big players are showing up because they see investment banking opportunities ahead—and they need to start dancing with the company long before then.
- Simply put, in my view, the downside risk is about $1, while the upside could be $10 to $20. Riverboat Pete likes those odds.
All good things, as they say, eventually come to an end.
So, to the many years I have spent living and breathing the metals and mining world, I simply say:
