I sincerely believe Almighty God has allowed me to endure all I have so I can be a voice crying out from the wilderness of greed and corruption in the financial world—challenging the overly optimistic, and at times ridiculous, assumptions many on Wall Street make about people’s hard-earned capital.
It has never been more important to be a live chicken rather than a dead duck. In my view, caution is essential, and preserving capital must take priority over pursuing appreciation.
Before anyone considers what kind of portfolio to hold, I believe there are essential principles and actions to understand:
- God owns everything; we are merely stewards.
- Less is more, especially in a world overwhelmed by debt.
- We must live within our means—and, when possible, below them.
- Do not spend more than you have.
- Tithing is the surest investment, bar none.
- Grandich’s Ten Commandments
Once these principles are in place, my view of the financial world is unlikely to earn me invitations from financial institutions. To begin with, I believe many financial advisors are unprepared for what lies ahead. Many were not even born when I entered the business in 1984, and they have never experienced a prolonged bear market. They and their clients have been conditioned to believe the market always comes back, so every pullback should be bought. History shows there have been periods when recovering losses took multiple decades. No, this time is not different.
Yes, we have witnessed the greatest melt-up ever, and it has gone further than I imagined. But we are now seeing repeated signs that key parts of this historic rise are beginning to come apart.
For now, I believe little to no broad equity exposure anywhere in the world is prudent. I do think RILAs may be suitable for those who need growth and are willing to give up some upside in exchange for limited or no downside losses.
No belief in my 42-year career proved more valuable than exiting worldwide government bonds at the end of 2021 and staying in one-year U.S. Treasury bills since then. A global debt crisis is underway, and it is still early.
Being on both sides of the gold trade has been extremely rewarding overall, especially in mining shares and junior resource stocks. Yes, there have been a few real losers, but overall, the gains have greatly outperformed even some of the extraordinary gains in technology stocks.
Another opportunity in metals and mining is before us, but my team does not specialize in that area. For that reason, I recommend two friends who are technically competitors but are excellent at what they do. I am glad to see clients of our planning group work with them in this space.
My days of speaking about metals and mining 24/7/365 are over, though I have been discussing them more lately because they have become interesting again. Even Uranium—a play in which I achieved triple-digit gains not once, but twice—is back on my watch list.
I encourage you to revisit some recent blog posts to better understand my current thinking:
- Mid-Year Commentary
- Pete Speaks and Live Webinar With Michael Gentile
- Retirement Crisis – It Just Keeps Getting Worse
- No Human Can Truly Save Us
Finally, I truly believe the difference between winners and losers will come down not to what they make, but to what they avoid losing.
